August 2025 marked a structural turning point in Australia’s automotive market

For the first time, four Chinese brands (BYD, GWM, MG, and Chery) entered the national top 10, collectively selling 16,597 vehicles in a single month (up 69 percent year-on-year).
September’s VFACTS data confirmed the shift is permanent rather than seasonal, with overall Chinese imports up 44,801 units year-to-date versus 2024.
The maths is straightforward: across all brands, approximately 250,000 Chinese-built vehicles have been added to the national fleet over the past 12 months.
Those vehicles will need replacement parts across predictable six-, twelve-, and twenty-four-month service cycles.

The parts-demand curve
Fifth Quadrant modelling projects three distinct demand phases based on standard service intervals.
First-quarter 2026 brings six-month services. Oil changes for internal combustion and plug-in hybrid models, air filters, and cabin filters across all powertrains.
With vehicles relatively new and under warranty, this will predominantly be captured by dealer networks, suggesting a limited role for the aftermarket.
The picture changes by third-quarter 2026 as twelve-month service cycles commence. Brake pads, tyres, wiper blades, and lamps represent the first significant independent workshop opportunity.
Fast-moving consumables will likely see initial supply pressure as volume builds.
The major replacement cycle then begins in 2027–2028 at the twenty-four-month mark, with brake rotors, suspension components, spark plugs for ICE models, and battery coolant services for EVs.
This will coincide with warranty expiry on older models and a level of change of ownership, disconnecting the dealer relationships and delivering a larger aftermarket opportunity.
A critical nuance complicates volume forecasting: not all Chinese vehicles service alike. BYD and MG’s portfolios include significant battery-electric volumes.
The BYD Atto 3 and MG4 eliminate traditional oil and filter change intervals but generate higher tyre wear due to vehicle mass and increased HVAC filter demand.
Plug-in hybrids like the BYD Sealion 6 and Shark 6 blend both service profiles, requiring conventional ICE maintenance plus battery system servicing.
GWM’s Cannon ute and Chery’s Tiggo range remain predominantly internal combustion, following conventional service patterns.
Effective parts forecasting must segment by powertrain rather than brand alone.

Beyond parts: the ADAS calibration gap
Parts availability is an important consideration, but not the only factor when it comes to considering servicing capability.
Modern Chinese vehicles are equipped with advanced driver-assistance systems: windscreen-mounted forward collision cameras, bumper-mounted radar for adaptive cruise control, and sensor arrays for parking assistance.
Routine services now trigger calibration requirements. Windscreen replacement on camera-equipped screens demands static or dynamic calibration post-installation. Suspension work affects sensor angles when ride height changes. Wheel alignment alters camera geometry. Bumper removal for minor repairs means parking sensor and radar recalibration.
The practical outcome: workshops need both parts inventory, and calibration capability.
Early investment in calibration equipment and Chinese-brand technical training will determine which workshops capture margin, versus which lose customers to better-equipped competitors.

Preparation determines position
The Chinese vehicle surge is a permanent realignment as against a temporary fluctuation. 250,000 vehicles on Australian roads today translates to mathematically certain parts demand over the next twenty-four months.
2026 will bring the first pressure test, while 2027–2028 will deliver scale as parts catalogues fill out and warranty periods expire.
The vehicles are in driveways. The parts demand is locked in. The only remaining variable is workshop readiness.
This column was prepared for AAA Magazine by Fifth Quadrant, the AAAA’s partners in the AAAA Aftermarket Dashboard which is delivered to AAAA members each quarter.

For more information about its services, visit www.fifthquadrant.com.au or contact Ben Selwyn on
ben@fifthquadrant.com.au