Are we investing like the future is coming?

If the car is becoming a platform – updated over the air, monitored remotely, and increasingly “managed” by the manufacturer – what happens to the independent aftermarket if we keep behaving like the only contest is price and proximity? The contest is shifting.
A new Auto Care Association report is blunt: the core disruption is the Software-Defined Vehicle (SDV). Over-the-air (OTA) capability lets OEMs sell features, performance upgrades and predictive maintenance as a continuous, subscription-style service.
That’s a structural change in who owns the relationship – and who gets first right of refusal on service, data, and attention.

The car is turning into a smartphone (and that changes everything)
The report describes the SDV as a shift away from distributed, hardware-led electronics into a centralised, software-driven model.
In plain language: the vehicle is evolving from a machine you maintain into a device you update – and updates aren’t only about bug fixes. Updates are a business model.
The battle for control over vehicle data, transmitted wirelessly via telematics, is becoming the central conflict that shapes the industry.
If you care about choice and competition, that should land like a thud.

The “barbell effect” – the middle gets squeezed
The report also describes service complexity being polarised into a “barbell effect.”
On one end are technologies designed for extreme durability and minimal intervention – think long-life batteries and airless tyres – which threaten to remove categories of routine work.
On the other end are technologies that dramatically increase complexity when repairs are needed – ADAS sensor suites requiring precise calibration and expensive equipment, and the integrated electronics of SDVs.
The “traditional sweet spot” – moderately complex, regular maintenance on familiar systems – gets squeezed from both sides.
The generalist shop that tries to sit in the middle may find itself outcompeted by high-volume legacy specialists on one side, and high-tech specialists on the other. That’s not fearmongering. It is strategy.

The good news: we have a “war chest”
The industry has time and cash flow, if we choose to treat it that way.
The report calls the existing vehicle parc the aftermarket’s “financial bedrock,” and argues that legacy fleet profits should be viewed as a strategic “war chest” to fund transition.
Servicing older vehicles remains strong and predictable. Meanwhile SDVs, ADAS, EVs and advanced diagnostics require sustained investment in tools, software, training and development. The answer is a dual-track strategy: optimise today’s business while investing deliberately for tomorrow.
I like that framing because it takes the conversation out of doom and puts it back into decision-making. The future isn’t “happening to us”. We can prepare – but only if we stop treating investment as optional.

Three uncomfortable questions (worth asking anyway)

1. Are we treating the legacy fleet as a cash machine… or as a funding engine?
2. Where are we placing our bets? Best-in-class legacy efficiency and volume – or a deliberate move into ADAS calibration, SDV diagnosis, and complex electronic repair?
3. Do we have a realistic – and defensible – position on data access? “Access” has to be secure, standardised, and workable for consumers and competition.

What a dual-track strategy looks like in the real world
“Dual-track” sounds like consultancy language until you translate it into plain actions.
Track 1: Make the legacy business ruthlessly good – extremely profitable
• Fix workflow waste (booking, parts ordering, approvals, rework).
• Lift customer confidence: clear quoting, clear explanations, consistent updates.
• Invest in efficiency tools that increase throughput without burning out staff.
The legacy fleet isn’t a consolation prize. It’s a major advantage, if you treat it as capital to be deployed.
Track 2: Build tomorrow’s capability in deliberate steps – as a plan
• Decide what “high-tech” means for you: ADAS calibration? EV diagnostics? Advanced scan capability?
• Build the stack: equipment, software subscriptions, training, QA processes; and the discipline to charge for it.
• Treat cybersecurity as real: the report flags it as a strategic imperative for anyone participating in the future ecosystem.
• Don’t miss the quieter opportunities: “smart tyres” transmitting tread-wear data could enable automated alerts and proactive customer contact – a future version of retention, driven by data.

So… are we investing like we believe this?
If vehicles are becoming more software-driven, connected, and data-rich, we have to stop acting like our only lever is being “the trusted local workshop.”
Trust matters. But trust without capability becomes goodwill. Capability without data access becomes frustration. Capability + secure access + a clear strategy becomes competitiveness.
The report’s conclusion is simple: optimise the present, invest in the future – not as a nice-to-have, but as essential for success in the new paradigm.

Your experience: what are you investing in?
Are you leaning into legacy efficiency and volume? Building ADAS and diagnostic capability? Already hitting data access barriers that make modern repairs harder than they should be?
If you want, send me what you’re seeing. The more real-world examples we have, the harder it is for decision-makers to pretend this is theoretical – and that’s exactly where AAAA will keep putting its effort: making sure the future is open, fair and workable for the independent aftermarket.

To contribute your experience, please email advocacy@aaaa.com.au